Bracketologist Joe Lunardi from ESPN currently does not have Alabama making the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The Crimson Tide is also not listed in his first four out or his next four out. Why is this so significant? Well, considering every year many surprise teams win their respective conference tournament to steal a spot from a potential bubble team, the Tide is essentially about 15 to 20 spots out at this point from making the tournament.
The main factors the NCAA committee looks at when determining at-large selections and seeding are strength of schedule, record against quality opponents and how many big wins (RPI top 50) or bad losses (bad losses being teams ranked RPI 101-150, and really bad losses are teams ranked outside RPI top 150). Strength of schedule is currently ranked 47, so that isn’t harming the Tide’s résumé. And Alabama is 7-5 against the RPI top 100, which is solid enough. But the problem lies in the last two components: big wins and bad losses. There just are not enough of the former and way too many of the latter.
And there aren’t really any games left to make up ground. Currently, Alabama only has one win against the RPI top 50 (Kentucky is barely hanging there at No. 47), and only two RPI top 50 opponents are left on their schedule (Ole Miss and Florida). In fact, those are the only two RPI top-100 opponents the Tide has left in its remaining eight games. (Note: This was written before outcome of the Georgia game.) The SEC just isn’t that strong at basketball, so Alabama had to capitalize on its opportunities when they were there and for the most part has failed to do so.
So essentially, in order to make the NCAA tournament, there are only two options. Option one, win the SEC tournament and get the automatic bid. Or option two, beat Florida and finish 7-1 in its remaining eight games. And even then the Tide would probably have to win a couple games in the SEC tournament.
How did the Tide end up in this spot? Well for one, losing to Dayton, Mercer and Tulane at home hasn’t helped. Beating Cincinnati on the road earlier in the season would have been a huge résumé booster. Not to mention closing against Tennessee would have given the Tide another RPI top-100 win. But what really screwed over Alabama’s chances was that putrid loss against Auburn. Auburn is currently 211 in the RPI, right behind the likes of Quinnipiac and CSU Northridge. Auburn’s win against Alabama was the Tigers’ only win in its last eight games.
So let’s look at the options again. Finish 7-1 down the stretch and win at Florida, or win the SEC tournament. The first option is a lot easier said than done. Florida has not only won every game at home this year, but the Gators have also pummeled their opponents at home, winning by an average of 26 points per game. Comparatively, Alabama’s current road record is 3-5. So at this point it seems more likely that Alabama gets the third or fourth seed in the SEC tournament and hopes Florida loses at some point before the Tide would have to play them. And that’s assuming the Tide can secure the third or fourth seed and manage to defeat the likes of Missouri, Kentucky and Ole Miss in the tournament without tripping up against an easy team along the way.
So grab your lucky rabbit’s foot, four-leaf clovers and horseshoes, because it’s looking like we are going to need a lot of luck if we want Alabama to make the NCAA tournament this year.
Leading in today’s Crimson White:
Football players’ victim speaks out after arrest
