Now that March Madness is over, the attention turns to the NBA playoffs, which kicked off over the weekend. But whereas March Madness was a series of upsets and surprises, it seems that the NBA playoffs will go down in a more predictable fashion.

In retrospect, this year’s March Madness was an exciting turn of events where hopefuls were eliminated early and lower ranked teams defeated higher ranked teams in upsets. Don’t expect the same level of unpredictability and surprise in the NBA playoffs. Looking at the history of the franchise for the past two years, there have only been three times in which a team that wasn’t ranked in the top four has won the NBA Finals.

It is unlikely that the Hawks, who have the worst record among qualifiers, will pull off an upset and beat the other teams for the title. The far more likely choice is that one of the top four teams will win the championship this year, simply because the NBA Finals leave little room for surprise and shock in their games.

While the NCAA tournament is a single-elimination event that leads to explosiveness, disappointment and victory, the NBA playoffs is a sluggish four rounds of seven-game series. While a lower ranked team might pull a victory and upset for one game, it is far more unlikely and improbable that it would be able to clench a victory for multiple games. Usually, the team with the better record and overall average prevails. In the NBA, numbers matter, especially going into the finals.

What does that mean for No. 5 Miami Heat, two-time defending champion? Well, there’s obviously some room for unpredictably, but not much. It certainly helps that the last team who wasn’t in the top four to win was the Heat in 2006. Still, such victories prove to be an exception to the rule when the entire history of the NBA is taken into account.

The odds of a No. 6 team winning are even worse. Only one team has ever won with a No. 6 ranking, and no teams ranked seventh or worse have ever won. Based on statistics and past records, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams have a much better chance of winning this year and any other year.

What does this mean for the NBA playoffs and the legion of fans awaiting it? They shouldn’t expect a series of upsets like the NCAA tournament. The better teams are usually the ones that win, and it seems that the winner of the championship is decided before the playoffs.