Around this time of year, with the NFL Draft and March Madness looming, sports fans and sports media start to overreact to everything that happens. In particular, we are too focused on the NFL Combine and the perceived “bubble” of the NCAA tournament.
Let’s start with the NFL Combine. The combine measures players’ attributes like speed, strength, quickness, etc., to give teams an idea of a player’s athletic abilities, but are often taken as absolutes for an athlete’s playing abilities. For example, we all know Manti Te’o ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash time at 4.82, but his speed or lack thereof shouldn’t be as much of a concern as the fact he got pushed around like a pinball by the Alabama offensive line and couldn’t tackle Eddie Lacy or T.J. Yeldon for the life of him in the BCS National Championship Game.
There is a high frequency of combine “stars” who end up as draft busts (Dontari Poe from last year is a great example) because we place too much stock in how fast a player can run 40 yards or how many times they can bench press 225 pounds. Jesse Williams may not have broken the record for most reps at the bench press, as many thought he might do (he only did 3o – the record is 51), but it’s not going to affect his draft stock like some might think. No one who has seen tape of him can doubt his strength and ability to swallow up offensive linemen, and one measurement shouldn’t change anything. Florida cornerback Joe Haden only ran a 4.57 40 at the combine in 2010, bringing up concerns he may be too slow to play cornerback in the NFL, but he has been outstanding for the Cleveland Browns over the last three years and has proven he is way faster than his 40 time might indicate.
Really, the combine should just help improve your opinion of what you already know. We all knew heading in to the 2011 NFL draft that Julio Jones was a monster of a receiver, but he was a borderline top-10 pick. Then he posted a 4.39 40 time and posted the longest long jump among receivers and was ultimately drafted 6th overall by the Falcons. Another good example this year is Dee Milliner. Heading into the combine he was considered a likely top-10 pick, based largely on his outstanding coverage skills and physical play at Alabama. After running a 4.37 40 time, it would be a miracle, it seems, for Milliner to make it past the 5th overall pick. The combine should reinforce what we know, not be the basis of our opinions.
The other thing everyone seems to be largely misguided on is Alabama’s bubble chances. According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Alabama is currently four spots out from making the tournament. This doesn’t mean Alabama is actually four spots away from making the tournament. If Alabama was a part of the last four in, then they still would be a couple spots out from making the tournament. If they were five to six spots in, they would still be a spot or two away from making the NCAA Tournament.
Why is this true, you may ask? There are two reasons – one, because teams automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament by winning its conference tournament, and two, because college basketball is crazy and unpredictable. And in a season like this one where there are no elite teams and March Madness should be even madder than usual, there will be a lot of random teams that come out of nowhere to win conference championships, moving every team on the bubble down a spot. And since five to eight teams annually unexpectedly win conference championships each year, you have to be well up on the bubble to even have a chance of making it. So stop with all this nonsense that Alabama could still make the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t beat Florida or win the SEC tournament. Alabama still has too many bad losses and not enough wins, and with the way the SEC tournament format is set up, without winning the tournament Alabama would only get one game against a good SEC tournament team, and an extra win over Ole Miss, Tennessee or Arkansas wouldn’t be enough.
Alabama only has two options if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament: beat Florida or win the SEC Tournament. Let’s stop pretending we have any other options, and just forget about “the bubble.”
Leading in today’s Crimson White:
Useful lessons I learned as an Alabama athlete
