The Alabama men’s basketball team will face the Auburn Tigers at 6 p.m. in Coleman Coliseum, and more than just an in-state rivalry and revenge for an early February loss will be on the line.
The Crimson Tide’s loss at LSU last Saturday left Alabama’s chances at a second straight NCAA tournament berth hanging by a thread.
Before the loss, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listed Alabama in the “next four out” group in his NCAA tournament projections. In the latest RPI rating, which was released Monday, the Crimson Tide dropped three spots from 59-62, putting it squarely on the bubble.
“Certainly I think Alabama’s on the outside looking in right now,” said Jeff Goodman, a national college basketball writer for CBSSports.com. “You can deal with resume losses, but right now bad losses, which is kind of what that is even though LSU’s gotten better, isn’t going to help their situation of being on the right side of the bubble.”
It’s a situation that Alabama has faced before under head coach Anthony Grant. In 2011, Grant’s second year on the job, the Crimson Tide won the SEC West, but early season losses to Seton Hall, Iowa and St. Peter’s doomed what chances Alabama had at reaching the big dance. Last year, however, the Crimson Tide overcame a four-game losing streak in conference play and finished strong to clinch a berth in the tournament.
Unfortunately for Alabama, 2013 looks to be shaping up to be a lot like 2011.
Alabama suffered five non conference losses, with the low point being back-to-back losses to Tulane and Mercer. The Crimson Tide has put together a 10-4 record in conference play since then, but the Southeastern Conference may be as weak as it has ever been, so there haven’t been many quality wins to come by. Conversely, losses to LSU and Auburn look worse than they would in years past.
“It’s certainly not a good loss at this point in the year,” said Dan Wolken, who covers college basketball for USA Today. “They really needed to rack up some big wins in the SEC, and the reality of the situation this year is that the SEC doesn’t offer a lot of high quality wins. If you miss against Missouri and you miss against Florida, then you’re basically playing games against other bubble teams.”
Florida and Missouri are the only SEC teams that appear to be locked in for the NCAA tournament right now. Lunardi listed Ole Miss as one of his “last four in” teams and Kentucky as one of his “last four out” before this weekend’s action.
Alabama still has a chance to prove itself, however. After facing Auburn, the Crimson Tide will travel to Florida for a crucial Saturday game that will be televised on ESPN. Then it will take on Ole Miss in Oxford, Miss., before finishing out the season at home against Georgia. The SEC tournament awaits after, where winning means an automatic NCAA tournament berth.
While the outlook currently looks bleak, there is still some hope for Alabama.
“They need to beat Florida, certainly,” Wolken said. “They also have Ole Miss coming up, which would help. It’s a moving target. The thing about these discussions is it’s so hard to gauge because it’s a moving target. It depends on what other teams in other leagues do.”
Goodman, however, thinks Alabama could still get in the tournament without beating the Gators.
“You’re not supposed to win the one at Florida anyway. They’re probably not going to win it. They win it, they’re in great shape,” he said. “It’s probably going to take them sweeping the rest of them and then winning at least one [SEC] tournament game.”
Many Alabama fans will call for Grant’s job if he fails to make the tournament for the third time in four years. The former VCU head coach and Florida assistant is making almost $2 million a year and currently has only a first-round tournament exit on his resume.
Both Goodman and Wolken were quick to dismiss the notion of Grant losing his job or even being on the hot seat if he misses the tournament. Grant inherited a severe talent deficiency and has recruited well during his time in Tuscaloosa. And barring a disastrous finish, Alabama will post 20 wins for the third straight season.
“You have to kind of judge it against the historical standard,” Wolken said. “What kind of program does Alabama expect to be, expect to have? Based on all of the factors that you typically look at in determining what expectations should be, Alabama is a program that should probably go to the NCAA tournament three out of five years, something along those lines.”
Goodman also pointed to Grant’s handling of disciplinary issues, like suspending JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell during the heart of last season’s run.
“I’m still an Anthony Grant fan. He’s high-integrity. He never self-promotes. He coaches those kids up. He makes those kids better as people,” Goodman said. “I think he’s one of the best people I’ve ever met doing this job. Has a lot of integrity, gets his kids to play hard. I don’t think he took over a program with a ton of talent – he had his work cut out for him. But I still think he’s the right guy for that job.”
Grant, as many coaches would, says he is taking things one game at a time, even with just four games remaining on the season. An Auburn loss would, after all, crush whatever tournament hopes Alabama has left.
“This game we have tomorrow is the most important game of the season,” he said. “I can’t see any farther than tomorrow. That’s my total focus and we just have to take care of ourselves and take care of the game that’s in front of us.”
Senior guard Andrew Steele echoed his coach’s sentiments. Beating Auburn is the first step to getting Alabama back in the tournament picture.
“In terms of the selection committee and all that, we can’t control what they decide. But we can decide how we come out and play each game,” Steele said. “Our next game is Auburn, so if we can’t get prepared to play those guys, then we don’t really have a chance at any other thing that we try to do. It’s the next game, so it’s the most important one.”
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