An old adage says, “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t.” With the current situation in Egypt, the devil that we have known is Hosni Mubarak. Most people feel a need for the United States, as the world’s leading democracy, to support worldwide democracies wherever those democracies may arise.
The track record of Middle Eastern democracies is, however, not necessarily a good one. Moderate, relatively secular rulers like the Shahs of Iran have given way to regimes like those imposed by the Ayatollah. In Lebanon, we have seen Hezbollah turn a rapidly industrializing, quasi-Western nation into a hotbed of terrorist activity that threatens the peace structure of the Middle East. These deep-rooted problems are just as applicable to modern Egypt.
While the immense military and economic support that the United States gives to Egypt cannot go unquestioned, its effects, at least for the past several decades, have led to stability. Since their peace treaty of 1977, Egyptian-Israeli relations have been among the best in the Middle East. The Sinai peninsula has been at peace for the first time in centuries, and our strongest ally in the Middle East, Israel, is finally able to focus — or at least move in the direction of focusing — on their domestic problems with the Palestinians.
A popularly ruled Egypt threatens that status quo. Should an absolute democracy take the place of an American-backed leader, it is highly probable that the Egyptians would elect an individual backed by Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood into the role of the presidency. If this happens, the diplomatic peace, which America has fought for years to preserve, could quite possibly evaporate. Israeli-Egyptian relations will certainly deteriorate and the Sinai will likely be thrown back into turmoil.
The Egyptian situation is not a lose-lose one for the United States. The role of our government should be that of a close ally to the powers that be in Egypt. The United States must help to usher in an era of moderate, stable democracy. It can do this by encouraging a coalition system like the one in place in the United Kingdom. With such a coalition government in place it is unlikely that a radical group like the Muslim Brotherhood could control the government of Egypt. It would give these groups enough representation in government, however, to keep to the Islamic fundamentalists appeased and at bay. Contrary to popular opinion, Egypt is the United States’ laboratory for democracy in the Middle East. As the United States shifts its ambitions out of Iraq and Afghanistan, it must not shift them out of the Middle East entirely but instead focus them diplomatically on Egypt.
Chip Harrison is a sophomore majoring in history.
