Similar to last season, Alabama men’s basketball is going into SEC play having not performed to its fullest capabilities. Now, however, the circumstances are different.
Early in the 2023-24 college basketball season, Alabama had offensive metrics that were off the charts and showed postseason potential that eventually manifested in a Final Four run; however, after the nonconference slate the team was unranked and lurking in the shadows with five close losses to high-quality opponents. By contrast, this year the Crimson Tide finds itself at No. 5 in the AP rankings.
After an at-times ugly win over Kent State, the Crimson Tide stands at 10-2, with losses to Purdue and Oregon — teams now ranked No. 21 and No. 9, respectively — by a combined 11 points. As of Dec. 28, it has three wins in the top 25 of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index against Houston, Illinois and North Carolina, as well as over No. 34 Creighton.
Alabama’s marked pre-SEC success this season is the most glaring difference from last season, and now the team doesn’t have nearly as much ground to make up for resume-building before March. Yet there’s a related statistical dynamic; unexpectedly low shooting numbers show that there’s perhaps even more firepower to this Crimson Tide squad than it has shown.
Like last year, Alabama is on a ballistic scoring run, with an 88.7 point-per-game average good for fourth in the nation. It is No. 9 in the BPI, ahead of teams like AP No. 10 Kentucky and reigning-champion AP No. 11 UConn. However, in the shooting categories that have formed the Nate Oats Alabama identity, the Crimson Tide is far behind its normal pace.
The 2023-24 Final Four team finished the season shooting 47.6% from the field, 37.3% from 3-point range — good for 20th in the nation — and 77.2% from the free throw line. By contrast, while this 2024-25 team is shooting a similar 47.2% from the field, it sits 269th nationally with 31.8% on 3s, and it’s down to 72.5% on free throws. The team also averages a turnover more per game, going from 11.8 to 12.8.
On an individual level, several players have started the season with rocky numbers and room for improvement. Most notable among these is 2023-24 All-American guard Mark Sears, who through all of last season averaged 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists on 50.8% from the field and 43.6% from 3. This year so far, he is putting up 18 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists on steeply dropped percentages of 40.1% from the field and 32.9% from 3-point range.
Missed shots and turnovers are the primary reasons Sears is falling short of the standard he set last year.
“It’s not for lack of wanting to do well. He’s trying to make the right reads. Sometimes, he’s just so aggressive,” Oats said about Sears needing to get in a rhythm going into SEC play.
Oats added that he’s “super happy” with Sears’ work in the last month: After an early-season stretch of frequent 30% or below FG shooting performances, Sears has recently shot 7/14 against UNC, 8/15 against Creighton and 7/14 against North Dakota.
Elsewhere, guard Jarin Stevenson has struggled with inconsistency. He missed his first 17 3-point attempts of the season and has shot 1/9 in his last three appearances. However, in between he rattled off a three-game stretch against Rutgers, Oregon and North Carolina in which he shot 69% from 3 on solid volume. The Crimson Tide could benefit from his contribution if he can return to the 31.7% he shot last year, up from his current 24.2% mark.
Transfer guard Chris Youngblood, whom Oats called a “knockdown shooter” and sought out in large part due to his 3-point ability, is working on finding a rhythm after giving up his redshirt just three games ago. He’s currently making 33.3% from range, which fans can very reasonably expect to go up based on his track record — since a 33% mark his first year in college, he has spent the last three seasons above 40%.
Sears, Stevenson and Youngblood are some of the primary players to watch in terms of individual improvement, but it’s really a team-wide leap for which other teams should be on alert. Alabama is ranked highly with one of the deepest rosters in the nation, which Oats called the “best” and “deepest one we’ve had” since he came to Tuscaloosa. Putting up such prolific scoring numbers with uncharacteristically low shooting splits means an improvement to meet last year’s norm could be dangerous for competition in the SEC and beyond.
In the unpredictable college basketball landscape, it’d be imprudent to assume the Crimson Tide’s success despite deficiencies means it’s bound for another Final Four trip. But if the team can add the statistical highs of last season to the current success it’s experiencing, the 2024-25 iteration of Alabama basketball could reach a level of excellence the program has rarely, if ever, seen before.
