After Alabama football finished its regular season with a 28-14 win over Auburn to move to 9-3, the team has left its fate in the hands of the College Football Playoff committee.
The committee responded to the Crimson Tide’s win by putting Alabama at No. 11 in its most recent rankings, which as of now would send the team on a trip to play Notre Dame in the first round of the playoffs. However, the Crimson Tide isn’t out of the woods yet. Due to the automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions, the team could find itself out of the playoff if No. 18 Clemson can beat No. 8 SMU in the ACC championship.
Alabama will almost certainly be in the playoff if SMU wins over Clemson. But if Clemson wins, a debate will be had on if the Crimson Tide will secure the final playoff spot over SMU. There also is a potential scenario of No. 12 Miami or No. 14 South Carolina potentially jumping in the rankings on Selection Sunday.
The scenario of Miami or South Carolina moving ahead of Alabama appears to be ruled out since none of the teams will be playing in a conference championship, as CFP committee chair Warde Manuel alluded to after the rankings were revealed on Tuesday.
“Any team that is not playing, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week,” Manuel said. “There’s nothing that’s going to change for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now.”
One of the biggest arguments for Alabama making the CFP is the team’s tough schedule this season. The Crimson Tide’s ESPN strength of schedule ranks No. 18 in the country, and head coach Kalen DeBoer cited this when making the pitch for this team to be in the playoffs after beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
“I think everyone’s aware of our schedule. I know we beat four top-25 teams throughout the year,” DeBoer said. “I don’t know how many, if anyone, has done that.”
The big knock on Miami’s and SMU’s playoff resumes is the strength of their schedules. Miami’s ESPN strength of schedule ranks 55th in the country, and SMU’s is 75th. Neither of the two teams has played a ranked team yet this season.
It’s a big factor why the Hurricanes are below Alabama even with one less loss than the Crimson Tide, and why if SMU loses to Clemson — the only ranked team it will have played — the playoff committee will have difficult adjustments to make to the rankings.
Many have also argued that South Carolina should be higher than the Crimson Tide because the Gamecocks have gone undefeated in their last seven games. But the two teams both have three losses, and Alabama beat South Carolina in October.
Guard Tyler Booker said the committee should follow the eye test when making its decision about rankings.
“If you turn on the film and think that Alabama is not one of the 12 best teams in the country, I don’t know what you would define as the 12 best teams in the country,” Booker said. “Because [with] the schedule that we play, the talent that we have on our team, I definitely think we’re one of the 12 best teams in the country.”
Another factor to consider is that the Alabama team that would be in the playoff would be well-rested, as the first-round game will be around three weeks after the Crimson Tide last played. The well-rested team has proven to be an impressive one, as arguably the two best performances Alabama had this season came off a bye week: winning 41-34 over Georgia in Week 5 and dismantling LSU 42-13 in Week 11.
The math is simple: If SMU beats Clemson, then the Crimson Tide is in no matter what. But even if Clemson can beat SMU, Alabama isn’t quite out of the race yet and will hope the playoff committee values the strength of the schedule the team has played.
Alabama’s final fate will be determined on Sunday at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN, as the CFP committee will reveal its final rankings.
