While it may come as no shock to fans that Alabama was picked as a favorite against a new FBS college football team like Georgia State, the unusually large point spread is part of a significant trend in growing point spreads for college football teams.
Oddsmakers have set the line at 56 points for the Crimson Tide’s Homecoming game. This isn’t the biggest point spread in Alabama’s history, not even the biggest in NCAA history, but as of recent, it is one of the largest for the Crimson Tide.
“This is one of the biggest numbers I’ve ever seen,” said Lance Taylor, co-host of “The Roundtable” on WJOX 94.5 FM in Birmingham. “It could be right up there with some of those ‘Bear’ Bryant games.”
Even though a spread as large as 56 points is surprising to some, Bleacher Report columnist Adam Kramer said larger point spreads are becoming a common trend in college football.
“You see them more often than we should with how some of the scheduling has gone down. But 56.5 points, truthfully, we don’t see often. That is a lot of points,” Kramer said.
This weekend, Alabama could very well cover its spread. The question is: Will Nick Saban really run the scoreboard up that much on Georgia State?
“They could legitimately beat this team,” Taylor said. “They could name their score. They could name their price. If they want to score 100 points on Georgia State, they can.”
Kramer held the same sentiments about the Crimson Tide’s ability but said he believes Saban and the team would be content to not cover this week’s spread.
“I’d be surprised if they covered that spread,” Kramer said. “Alabama, especially in this game, especially after a big win, is probably going to be content to win 45-0 instead of 56-0. They can certainly do it. It’s just a question of how much do they want to win by.”
The Crimson Tide’s increase in point spreads can be linked to Saban’s arrival on campus. Kramer said nearly every week for the past three years, Alabama has been a three-touchdown favorite. The Tide has been able to cover these spreads about 60 percent of the time, he said.
“The study of Alabama over the past three years is impressive. This is a team that’s now been favored in more than 45 games now, which is unbelievable,” Kramer said.
The USC Trojans under Pete Carroll hold the current record for the number of straight games favored with 58. Kramer said Alabama has a good chance of surpassing them.
The Crimson Tide hasn’t been an underdog since the 2009 SEC Championship.
“That is baffling. That is something I can never recall since I’ve been handicapping,” Taylor said. “Especially in the SEC with so many big games and top-10 matchups week in and week out. How this team can be favored for going on four years now, it’s crazy.”
In early preseason lines, the line makers in Las Vegas, Nev., gave Alabama the highest chance to win a national championship.
And Alabama was favored to win all 10 games it picked.
Both Kramer and Taylor agree that most gamblers will shy away from large point spreads like Alabama’s because of the many factors that could lead to a loss of coverage.
“It’s really tough to assess. When point spreads get this large, you have a hard time understanding it because there’s a lot of factors … that make it really hard to figure it out,” Kramer said.
