This year’s race for the biggest Oscar of them all – “Best Picture” – will be a photo finish come March, and even Thursday morning. While several big fan favorites (such as “Gone Girl,” “Into the Woods” and “Unbroken”) and independent fare (led by “A Most Violent Year” and “Wild”) are still in the hunt, 10 films are currently in the prime position to earn “Best Picture” nominations Thursday morning.
If any one film has a leg up on the competition, it’s “Boyhood.” A technical achievement 12 years in the making – filmed once a year for 12 years, with the same core cast – and an intimate, low-key portrayal of growing up in the modern age, Richard Linklater’s masterpiece has the critical support and prizes, including the Golden Globe, it needs to take the top prize. If it wins Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Linklater should get his speech ready.
Another technical triumph of the year, “Birdman” is another critical darling. Not only is it in the hunt for double-digit nominations, this pitch-black comedy about a washed-up actor battling personal and professional demons as he attempts to stage a Broadway play to revitalize his career is the front runner for its screenplay and lead actor.
This is the sleeper contender that could still pull off the big win. “Selma,” which follows the Selma-to-Montgomery march in 1965 and stars likely Best Actor nominee David Oyelowo as Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., has been the subject of recent controversy over its factual accuracy and credits on its screenplay. However, Ava DuVernay’s film has a passionate fan base, rapturous critical reception and timeliness on its side.
The Oscars love biopics, and while Oscar whisperer Harvey Weinstein is behind “The Imitation Game,” James Marsh’s Stephen Hawking biopic “The Theory of Everything” has the potential to be the ceremony’s most-nominated film. Its lead performances of Eddie Redmayne as Hawking and rising star Felicity Jones as his first wife are locked in. It’s critically mixed, but the appeal of its performances may give it an edge.
This is the year’s comeback story. Usually films released early in the year don’t make it to the ceremony, but critic groups have revived “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and thrust it into the midst of the race. Wes Anderson’s large-scale comedy has the Golden Globe for best comedy/musical to its name and plenty of supporters to safely put it in the middle of the “Best Picture” pack.
The story of British cryptologist Alan Turing – played by likely Best Actor nominee Benedict Cumberbatch – has The Weinstein Company, one of Hollywood’s most known and notorious studios, back in the race once again. Cumberbatch and co-star Keira Knightley should land nominations, and the film has a solid critical reception and good awards showing that should give it a slot in the lineup.
While it doesn’t sound like the typical Oscar movie, “Nightcrawler” has stealthily and quickly become a serious contender for the top prize. Following an amateur journalist who sells crime scene videos to news stations, Dan Gilroy’s film has critical love that could give it a secure spot toward the bottom of the lineup. Then again, it could be too dark for the Oscars to embrace.
Since its premiere at Cannes, Bennett Miller’s latest film about a schizophrenic millionaire (Steve Carell) and his relationship with two Olympic wrestler brothers (Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo) has earned plenty of critical praise and a solid awards haul. The film may be too bleak for the Academy to embrace, but it has its fans there. “Foxcatcher” is a question mark but still has a good shot.
This year’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild” equivalent, Damien Chazelle’s “Whiplash” has the potential to be the independent breakout film of the year. A Sundance premiere that follows an aspiring jazz drummer (Miles Teller) and his drill-sergeant instructor (Best Supporting Actor frontrunner J.K. Simmons), the film may be too small or too intense for the Academy to love, but there’s no doubt “Whiplash” is definitely in the hunt.
Although its critical reception has been mixed, “American Sniper” has been able to overcome a late release date to gain support from the Academy. Teaming director Clint Eastwood – who already has two directing Oscars – and lead actor Bradley Cooper, the story of the late Navy Seal sniper Chris Kyle is a film that could make it in, if the Oscars go to 10 nominees and don’t mind the controversial subject.