Alabama’s loss versus Oklahoma significantly shook up the College Football Playoff picture and the team’s individual postseason hopes. With the team’s playoff chances sitting at 84%, here’s what things look like for the Crimson Tide after Week 12.
Alabama has two games left in the season. The first will come at home this Saturday against Eastern Illinois out of the FCS. The Panthers, playing in the Ohio Valley Conference, are 3-8 on the season and will most likely not provide much of a test.
“Everything we want is still in front of us,” offensive tackle Tim Keenan III said, “but we got to go and handle Eastern Illinois.”
The Crimson Tide’s final regular season game of the year is straight nightmare fuel. Alabama will have to travel to The Plains to take on a zombie Auburn team that is fighting for bowl eligibility in this year’s rendition of the Iron Bowl.
Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium has been the site of some football voodoo and witchcraft in the past, so playing in what will be the Tigers’ Super Bowl presents an incredible challenge for the Crimson Tide. Despite this, ESPN gives Alabama a 74.2% chance to win that game.
As far as the math for making the CFP and SEC championship game, it’s pretty simple: Alabama must win out in order to have a shot. If the Crimson Tide drops a game, it will definitely not play for the conference title and will have a very small chance at making the playoffs as an at-large team.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich believes the Iron Bowl is a “must win,” noting that a three-loss Alabama with unranked losses to Florida State and Auburn would “drop out of the playoff race.”
If Alabama does win out and finishes the season 10-2, it will most likely clinch a playoff berth in some capacity.
The first option, and least likely, is for the Crimson Tide to miss the SEC title game. It would require a specific set of results across multiple SEC games. If those results happened, Georgia would make the SECCG.
The second option would be for Alabama to punch its ticket to the SEC title game. This would require Texas A&M or Ole Miss to lose another conference game, or for the Crimson Tide to have a better strength of schedule over Georgia, which it likely will.
Either way, the path to the playoffs for Alabama is simple: win out and you’re in.
The Crimson Tide’s next game will be Saturday at home versus Eastern Illinois. Kick off is scheduled for 1 p.m. CT, and the game can be streamed on SEC Network+.
