With four candidates left in contention for the GOP nomination for president of the United States, Republican voters go to the polls today in the important primary state of Florida.
Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney have been campaigning in the state since the South Carolina primary, while Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have left to focus on smaller states.
The winner-take-all election will yield 50 delegates to the winner, and all signs are pointing to a strong Romney showing in the Sunshine State. On his New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com, former Baseball Prospectus writer Nate Silver places the odds of Romney winning at 97 percent.
“If Mr. Gingrich has some slim chance of winning, there’s also the chance that he could lose by 25 or more points,” Silver wrote. “Odds are, instead, that Mr. Romney will win by somewhere in the range of 10 points to 20 points, meaning that many networks are likely to declare him the winner shortly after polls close.”
Originally a strong Rick Perry supporter, Joe Mahoney, a junior majoring in political science, now backs the former Massachusetts governor.
“I am looking for the person who can beat Barack Obama in November,” he said, “Because of that, I support Mitt Romney.”
Mahoney also believes that Romney has the tenacity to solve the current economic issues that face the nation.
Romney’s plans for the economy include maintaining current tax rates on personal income while maintaining the current tax rates on interest, dividends and capital gains. He would also scrap the estate tax if elected president, according to his campaign website.
Despite his support for Romney, Mahoney understands why some people support former House Speaker Gingrich.
“Newt Gingrich is somebody who I respect very much,” Mahoney said. “But I don’t think he has the national campaign infrastructure to win a general election.”
Despite his support for Romney, Mahoney admits he could be persuaded to pull the lever for Gingrich when the Alabama primary comes up in early March.
“I could absolutely change my mind.” Mahoney said. “Newt Gingrich is a man of great ideas. If I were president, I would want him in my administration.”
The Alabama College Republicans have decided to not endorse a candidate before an official nominee is decided.
Adam Rawlins, a junior majoring in political science and a member of the group, said this was to avoid tensions within their group.
“Since individuals within the organization may support one candidate over another, we feel it would be unwise to push a specific candidate,” he said.
Rawlins is a Romney supporter because of the candidate’s background and credentials in the private sector. Rawlins also cited the fact that Romney is the most likely to beat President Obama in November as a major reason for his support.
“Romney is the most electable candidate, and he has a history as a problem solver, which is exactly what America needs,” Rawlins said.
Christian Smitherman, a sophomore double majoring in political science and psychology, is a Gingrich supporter.
“I can trust Newt more,” Smitherman said. “We are down to the bottom of the barrel right now as far as candidates go. It’s more of a last option, but I do think [Gingrich] is the committed conservative in the race.”
Smitherman supports Gingrich’s tax plan, which by gradually moving toward a 15 percent flat tax “would allow Americans the freedom to choose to file their taxes on a postcard, saving hundreds of billions in unnecessary costs each year,” according to his campaign website.
Despite his disdain for Romney, he would still support him over President Obama if he were the nominee.
The polls will be open to only registered Republicans in Florida from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The Alabama Primary will be held on March 13.
