Alabama women’s soccer (1-4-2) is on the road for its final regular game of the season against rival No. 15 Auburn (3-1-2). 

The Friday night contest has big implications for the SEC tournament, which takes place later this month in Orange Beach, Ala. on Nov. 13 through Nov. 22. Alabama heads into the game in sixth place with two division points, and Auburn in fourth place with seven divisional points in the SEC West. Alabama is tied with Kentucky with two divisional points. Just behind the Tide are Florida and LSU, with one divisional point.

Best-case scenario – Alabama beats Auburn to finish with five divisional points, Florida beats or ties Kentucky, making it impossible for Kentucky to finish with five points, and No. 8 Texas A&M beats or ties LSU. This would allow the Crimson Tide to enter the tournament as the 11th seed, the highest possible seed.

Middle-ground scenarios – 

1. Alabama beats Auburn to finish with five divisional points. Kentucky beats Florida, matching Alabama’s five points. However, Alabama would break the tie with one more overall win than Kentucky. The same seeding outcome would happen if both Alabama and Kentucky tie their games. 
2. Alabama and Kentucky both tie, and LSU beats No. 8 Texas A&M. This would leave LSU with four divisional points, pushing the Tigers ahead of Alabama’s three divisional points, which would mark Alabama as the 12th seed.

Worst-case scenarios – Alabama loses to Auburn, finishing with two divisional points. Kentucky beats or ties Florida, which would break the two divisional point ties, and LSU beats No. 8 Texas A&M. This would put Alabama at the bottom of the conference, 14th place, entering the tournament. 

Since head coach Wes Hart’s inaugural season in 2015, Alabama has maintained a 0-4 record against Auburn. One goal made the difference in three of those four losses, and Friday night’s match looks to be low-scoring and closely contested once again. Both Alabama and Auburn do not have a player ranked in the top 10 in the conference in the categories of shots, shots per game, points, points per game, goals, goals per game, assists and assists per game. 

The Auburn Tigers also have the best goalie in the conference, Maddie Prohaska. Prohaska leads the conference in shutouts, shutouts per game and save percentage with a .900 cap. The Tigers have had more scoring opportunities than the Crimson Tide, averaging almost two more corner kicks per game. Auburn’s final advantage is that Alabama often finds itself in foul trouble. Alabama leads the conference with 93 fouls, which is 17 more than the next team and 44 more than Auburn. 

The non-statistical advantage Auburn has over Alabama is confidence. Auburn is coming off a thrilling 1-0 overtime win over LSU and has put together a winning record. On the contrary, Alabama has been unable to find a win in its last six games. 

Alabama and Auburn are set to kick off at 6 p.m. CDT on Nov. 6 and will air on SEC Network Plus.