Let me begin by saying that I am just as bothered by the overcrowding at the University as much as anyone. However, the graph in Thursday’s Crimson White depicting the new enrollment projections was misleading and inaccurate.
First, the average rate of change from 2000 to 2010 is about a 4.5 percent annual increase in fall enrollment. Since Dr. Witt became president in 2003, the rate of change in enrollment averages 5.5 percent annually. But if the goal is to have 35,000 students by 2020, that means we will have to increase at an average annual rate of just 1.55 percent to get from 30,009 to the eventual 35,000 in the fall of 2020. That’s a significant drop in the rate of increase, but your graph makes it appear that we will be increasing at a constant rate similar to the rate for the past three years, which would be closer to 5.47 percent. So really, we are not referring to an increase in the rate of enrollment. So while Dr. Witt wants the University to grow, his projection indicates he wants it to grow more slowly, which at the rate the University is building buildings will hopefully make the University more comfortable.
The reason in discrepancy between the rates of change and the graph in Thursday’s CW can be traced to a couple graph making mistakes. First of all, the Y-axis should start at zero. Obviously there isn’t room for six inches of white space between zero and 15,000 but there is a way around that. Logarithmic scale is used on graphs such as these when the entire co-domain cannot fit on the allotted space. Second of all, the X-axis begins with a year being represented between the two markers. For instance, from the origin to the first line is one year. However, after 2010, three markings equal 10 years instead of three. There is no break in the line to indicate this and it puts 10 years of growth into the space of three years.
Clearly admission increases won’t be constant over the next decade but the projection is linear just like the one in the CW. Yes, there is an increase, but compared to increases over the past few years, it looks like Alabama is starting to settle down.
Robert Maxwell is a senior majoring in economics.