Last season, Alabama was painfully eliminated from playoff contention after its loss to unranked Oklahoma, moving to three losses on the year. This season, Alabama has a chance to return the favor.
The No. 4 Crimson Tide is 8-1 this season and is currently ranked second in the SEC standings. If the season were to end today, the team would be in the SEC championship, essentially guaranteeing a playoff spot, win or lose. Oklahoma currently is the first team out of the playoff bubble with two losses, fighting to stay in.
If the Crimson Tide wins on Saturday, according to last season’s playoff rankings, it would all but eliminate the Sooners from the playoffs and continue its undefeated SEC record. Even if Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, and move to 10-2, the playoff spot is guaranteed, according to Mack Rhoades, the chair of the College Football Playoff Committee.
“For the committee, we look at it as a positive if you’re playing in the championship game,” Rhoades said. “It’s another datapoint. It’s certainly recognized when we think about record strength. Obviously, you win it, that’s a plus. If you lose it, theoretically, it’s not supposed to hurt you.”
A loss for Alabama would mean a tough and non-guaranteed playoff road. The Crimson Tide would not be eliminated from the SEC championship picture, but it would no longer have a guaranteed spot and would most likely drop in the rankings. The team would most likely remain in the top 10 but would still have the Auburn road game on the schedule.
The Auburn Tigers are under interim head coach D.J. Durkin, and in his first game at the helm, they took a talented Vanderbilt team to overtime and lost. Most of the time when the Crimson Tide take on the Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium, things get ugly. In 2023, Alabama narrowly escaped defeat with a miraculous 4th-and-31 touchdown to win the game, keeping playoff hopes alive. This time, if the Crimson Tide loses, it would have to win at Auburn to stay in and would likely be eliminated with a loss.
If the Crimson Tide defeat the Sooners on Saturday, it is essentially a playoff lock. The next two games on the schedule would be Eastern Illinois and Auburn. Even if the Crimson Tide were to lose to Auburn after defeating Oklahoma — assuming the team defeats Eastern Illinois — Alabama’s record would sit at 10-2.
However, a 10-2 Alabama with four ranked wins would get an at-large bid in the playoffs, similar to Tennessee last season, who missed the SEC championship but reached the playoffs with two losses. This is the most important remaining game for both teams’ playoff hopes, so Alabama needs to prepare for a desperate Sooners team trying to avoid elimination.
