By Jordan Berry

I would be lying if I said I had an easy time predicting this year’s Best Picture race. Never in the ten years that I’ve been doing this have I been more uncertain: “Avatar” or “The Hurt Locker?”

With all the steam that “The Hurt Locker” has been gathering, it might seem odd that this year’s race is a toss-up for me.

At first glance, “The Hurt Locker” seems to have the edge. It has won many awards. It has dominated among the critics. And don’t think that the academy has forgotten that it could make history by awarding Best Picture for the first time to a film directed by a woman.

But mighty “Avatar” might have something to say about all of this.

I understand that “Avatar” has no writing and acting nominations. I also realize that the preferential voting method used for the Oscars favors a film like “The Hurt Locker.”

But it is still “Avatar,” the movie event of the year. It has not become the highest grossing movie of all time based solely on spectacle. There is a connection with the audience, one that has led to such a close Oscar race.

If “Avatar” won, it would not be another instance like “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan” or “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain.” To me, this year’s race is similar to 2006, when “The Departed” won a wide-open field.

Although “The Hurt Locker” is perceived to be a much better film by many people, I still do not think of an “Avatar” victory as an upset. Not with the pull it has with audiences around the world.

I came very close to predicting an “Avatar” upset. Not to be different, not to create shock, and not to look good should it occur. My gut tells me that audiences have really taken to it, and that it could very well beat “The Hurt Locker” on its own merits.

One of the big reasons I went with “The Hurt Locker” is because it has a screenplay nomination, whereas “Avatar” was not nominated (much like Cameron’s “Titanic”). In the past, the academy has considered the screenplay to be the mark of a great film. And “The Hurt Locker” has the distinction of being nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

And that is one area where I think we could see another upset. If the academy really favors “The Hurt Locker,” I tend to believe it will win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar over “Inglourious Basterds.” Academy members love Quentin Tarantino, so this will be another fun race to watch.